Since the adoption of the last County Development Plan the 1996 Census of Population has become available. County Kilkenny’s population has shown a modest net increase of 1,701 over the period 1991 to 1996. The results show that County Kilkenny’s population structure is still very rural whereby the County continues to have a weak urban structure with Kilkenny City being the dominant urban centre. The towns next in size within the County are very much smaller than Kilkenny City. With the exception of Thomastown, these towns have been quite static in population.

Table 2.0 below shows the changes in population of Kilkenny City and the four scheduled towns.

Table 2.1

As a country, Ireland is moving more into line with European patterns of population, in that the birth rate is falling and there is increasing urbanisation. This trend is also reflected at county level.

60% of the county’s total population increase (1991 – 1996) occurred in Kilkenny City and its environs.

Rural areas closer to towns saw substantial population increases. For example the rural area adjoining Kilkenny City (Kilkenny rural DED) increased from 10,841 in 1991 to 11,638 in 1996. Rathpatrick DED, which is adjacent to Waterford City, increased from 1,063 (1991) to 1,662(1996).

Table 2.1 shows the previous forecasts compared to actual populations for the entire County.

As can be seen from the above table the population projection is an exercise in estimation and can be seriously inaccurate. The volatility of Irish migration patterns makes estimates in Ireland particularly difficult. Economic conditions can have a greater impact than birth and death rates.

CAAS Consultants have carried out an estimation of future population in the County.

The assumptions made for the prediction of the population of the County were that the birth rate would continue to decline, mortality will fall and there will be an increase in migration.

Table 2.3

* CAAS Study - Population Projections for County Kilkenny 1999-2019
The estimates predict an increasing population within the County with a significant increase in elderly people with the number at working age and the size of the work force increasing. By 2004 the population of the County is forecast to increase to 80,202. Over a twenty-year period the County’s population is forecast to increase to 84,530 by the year 2019. *

*Source CAAS study. Population Projections for County Kilkenny 1999- 2019

Based on the current trends there is a significant increase in households predicted. Between 1991 and 1996 the number of private households rose from 20,593 to 22,257 an increase of 1,664** at a time when the population rose by 1,701 persons. The projected figures show a continuation of this trend for Kilkenny. It is estimated that there will be a significant increase in the number of households. This is due to a trend of increased household formation relative to population. The number of family units increases due to a greater number of single parent families and single and two person households.

**C.S.O. Census of Population 1996

In the 1994 Development Plan it was predicted that there would be significant declines in population of school age, while the workforce would continue to grow throughout the Plan period. Analysis of the most recent CSO figures available show that these predictions are coming through with a reduction in school going population and an increase in the working population as a percentage of the total population over the period 1986 to 1996.

Table 2.5
Percentage in each age group Kilkenny City & County

During the period of the Development Plan a review of the population projections carried out in 1999 was completed and a revised projection for the purposes of the Housing strategy (Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000) was completed in 2001.

This review was not based on cohort survival techniques but was an estimate of house completions for the period 2001 to 2007 having regard to the projections already carried out the National Spatial Strategy, the population predictions for the South East Region and the level of house completions to the year 2000.

This gave the following projections:

Table 2.6
Population and Household Estimates and Forecasts for Kilkenny City & County

These figures are in line with those in the strategy that simulates a distribution of employment growth away from Dublin and to other parts of the country over a similar period.

The projections carried out indicate
• An increasing population
• An ageing population
• An increasing workforce
• An increasing rate of household formation

A new census of population has been undertaken in the year 2002. It is an objective of the Council to monitor and analyse the results from the new census as they become available during the period of the new plan in order to assess the accuracy of the projections made and to identify problems and opportunities which might arise as a result.